Modelling the potential effects of climate change in the distribution of Xylotrechus arvicola in Spain

Xylotrechus arvicola is an emerging grape pest that generates serious sanitary problems in vineyards and currently expanding its range throughout Spain. The increasing prevalence of this Spanish has been detected since 1990. In study, the relationship between climate actual distribution beetle was analysed, as well how might change future according to several models. methodology based on predictive models (SDM; species modelling) using variables explanatory factors, although relationships were not necessarily causal. Maxent used SDM method. current climatic niche calculated, potential area estimated. probability presence projected various scenarios. main conclusions reached will favour expansion X. infestation zones be extended significantly. Although results, because they hypothetical frameworks are under constant revision, conclusive, should taken into consideration when defining strategies wine industry.